UNCTAD warns critical mineral trade fragmentation risks 30 clean energy cost surge

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development warned on Friday that surging demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy is fundamentally reshaping global trade flows around critical minerals, with highly concentrated supply chains and a wave of new export restrictions risking fragmentation of international markets and higher costs. In a report published 13 June 2026, UNCTAD said the shift is accelerating trade corridors between mineral-rich economies in Central Asia, Africa and Latin America and major manufacturing hubs in Asia, while simultaneously tightening bottlenecks in Europe and North America.

The warning comes as critical-mineral discussions convened in Astana on 11 June 2026, where officials from 28 countries reviewed supply-chain resilience and trade policy coordination. The Astana meeting, the third such gathering this year, focused on cobalt, lithium, rare earths and antimony—metals now classified as “critical” by the European Union and the United States. Delegates discussed harmonising export controls and streamlining customs procedures to prevent market fragmentation, according to a summary circulated by the host government .

Meanwhile, Military Metals Corp. said on 13 June 2026 it has filed an appeal with the Slovak government after authorities revoked its licence to operate the Trojarova antimony mine in central Europe. The company called the decision “arbitrary and without legal basis,” and said it would seek immediate reinstatement while pursuing international arbitration under the Energy Charter Treaty. The licence suspension, announced 4 June 2026, cited environmental violations that the company denies .

UNCTAD’s report underscores the stakes: global demand for lithium is projected to rise 40-fold by 2040, while graphite and cobalt needs could jump 25-fold, outpacing even the most aggressive supply expansions. The agency noted that the Democratic Republic of Congo alone now supplies 70% of the world’s cobalt, and China controls 85% of rare-earth processing capacity. New export restrictions imposed by Indonesia on nickel and by Zimbabwe on lithium have already rerouted trade flows, pushing buyers toward Kazakh and Mongolian suppliers.

Analysts warn that without coordinated policy responses, the scramble for critical minerals could deepen geopolitical rivalries and inflate clean-energy transition costs by as much as 30%, delaying climate goals. The Astana talks are expected to conclude on 14 June 2026 with a non-binding declaration on transparency and supply-chain diversification.