Swedes expect new government: Liberalerna fights to survive threshold

A majority of Swedish voters expect a new government after the September election, according to a survey commissioned by Sveriges Radio’s Ekot, while Liberalerna (L) defies polling gloom with a 50/50 chance of surviving the 4-per-cent threshold. The findings, published on Wednesday 17 June 2026, suggest that voters anticipate a post-election shift in power even as one of the incumbent parties fights for its parliamentary future.

The Liberalerna’s lifeline is a unique forecast model released the same day by *Svenska Dagbladet*, which places the party’s survival odds at exactly fifty-fifty despite what the paper calls “catastrophic” polling numbers . The model relies on historical voting patterns rather than current polls, arguing that Liberalerna has repeatedly rebounded from low standings in the final stretch of campaigns. “The party’s lifeline is written in the past,” the newspaper writes, noting that Liberalerna has twice before defied expectations by clearing the threshold after trailing badly in late-spring surveys.

Across Sweden, voters appear to share that sense of uncertainty. The Ekot survey, also published on 17 June, found that 54 per cent of respondents believe the sitting government will lose power in September, while 28 per cent expect it to remain in office and 18 per cent are undecided . The poll did not specify which parties respondents expect to form the next administration, but the margin underscores a broad expectation of change.

Meanwhile, in Latvia, election planners are factoring air-raid risks into preparations for the autumn parliamentary vote. The Central Election Commission has asked municipal governments to identify shelter options in buildings that will host polling stations, Vidusdaugava Television reported on 16 June . Most polling places will be located in municipal buildings, and the CVK wants local authorities to provide contingency plans by the end of August.

Back in Sweden, the Liberalerna’s survival bid is being watched as a test of whether historical patterns can override present-day discontent. Party strategists have pointed to past elections—most recently in 2018 and 2022—when Liberalerna recovered ground in the final weeks. “We have always found a way,” one senior figure told *Svenska Dagbladet*, though the party has yet to signal a dramatic late surge in its public messaging. With voters already betting on a change of government, the Liberals’ threshold battle may determine whether Sweden’s next parliament looks markedly different from today’s.