Marine Le Pen leads France's 2027 presidential race with 30.5 percent support, while departing European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde would match center-right candidate Edouard Philippe at 14 percent, according to new polling .
The Cluster17 survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday with 1,164 respondents, tested three scenarios for the election scheduled for 2 May 2027. When Lagarde runs as the Ensemble candidate, Le Pen of the National Rally leads with 30.5 percent, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 21 percent and Lagarde at 14 percent . When Philippe runs instead, Le Pen again leads with 30.5 percent, Mélenchon receives 20 percent, and Philippe gets 13.5 percent . In a crowded 18-candidate field, Le Pen polls at 27 percent, Mélenchon at 19 percent, and both Philippe and Lagarde at 8 percent each .
Lagarde, who served as French economy minister under President Nicolas Sarkozy almost two decades ago, has previously ruled out a presidential bid. In September interviews with La Croix and Ouest-France, she said: "Ce ne serait pas du tout une bonne idée. Ce n’est pas le même métier. Il y a d’abord une question de vitalité, d’énergie, de force. Il y a aussi un sens du sacrifice inéluctable dans ce type d’engagement. Et j’ai 70 ans…" She told Ouest-France she wanted to "porter une parole européenne, sans être candidate à quoique ce soit" . She will leave the ECB on 7 February.
The poll was commissioned by POLITICO. No polling institute had previously tested a Lagarde candidacy, according to the report .
